KYOTO PROTOCOL PASSES LAST HURDLE, CARBON EMISSIONS SET TO RISE

Following Russian President Putin's endorsement of the country's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, the entry into force of the multilateral environmental agreement is finally set to become a reality. However, according to new energy statistics by the International Energy Agency (IEA), carbon emissions are projected to rise worldwide even if countries succeed in implementing sustainable energy policies. Meanwhile a number of civil society groups warned that accelerating climate change would provide an obstacle to poor countries' ability to develop.

Putin signs off on Kyoto Protocol

On 4 November, Russian President Putin signed a bill endorsing Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol to combat climate change. The Russian parliament had voted in favour of ratification on 27 October (see BRIDGES Weekly, 27 October 2004), leaving Putin to complete the process. Russia had been stalling on ratification for over two years, leaving observers to question what the final fate of the Protocol would be. Only Russia could trigger the Protocol's entry into force after the US -- the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter -- pulled out in 2001. Russia's ratification has been linked to EU support for Russia's WTO accession, formalised at a summit in May (see BRIDGES Weekly, 2 June 2004). Once the ratification documents are delivered to the UN, the Kyoto Protocol will enter into force after 90 days.

The Kyoto Protocol obliges developed countries to reduce carbon emissions by five percent as compared to 1990-levels. They can also buy and sell carbon credits, and a new market is already developing. Russia is expected to be a major seller. "Russian ratification means a new market and a new economy has been given the green light," commented Jeff Fiedler of the US-based Natural Resources Defense Council. He regretted that US businesses would remain outside this market due to the US pull-out from the Kyoto Protocol.

IEA and WTO release energy stats

As countries prepare for a carbon-constrained future, patterns of energy use and trade will be affected. The latest projections from the IEA -- released in the "World Energy Assessment 2004" on 26 October -- show, however, that under the status quo, world primary energy demand is set to rise by 59 percent from now until 2030. About 85 percent of the increase is projected to be in the form of carbon-emitting fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas; two-thirds of the new demand would come from developing countries, primarily from China and India. The IEA also provides an alternative scenario based on vigorous government action to steer the world onto a sustainable energy path. Under this "Alternative Policy Scenario" -- centred on energy efficiency measures and a shift towards renewable and nuclear energy -- global energy demand in 2030 would be 10 percent lower, carbon dioxide emissions 16 percent lower, and global reliance on Middle East oil would decrease. Claude Mandil, Executive Director of the IEA, stressed that ultimately, "achieving a truly sustainable energy system will depend on technological breakthroughs that radically alter how we produce and use energy". He called for technology policies in that area of energy that "would allow us to meet our growing energy needs without compromising our energy security and the environment".

The WTO, in its newly-released World Trade Statistics for 2004, noted the growing impact of energy costs on economies, as energy imports, and oil imports in particular, grew more than usual last year. Oil, coal and gas exports grew in value by 20 percent, while China's fuel imports increased by USD10 billion over the same period. The sharply increased oil prices over the last year were triggered by rising demand as well as speculation on supply glitches; they did not dampen overall trade growth, with the volume of world trade likely to grow by 8.5 percent the end of 2004.

Global warming threatens development goals

In related news, a recent report by a coalition of environment and aid agencies, entitled "Up In Smoke", warns that climate change may sabotage attempts to lift the world's poorest out of poverty and make the Millennium Development Goals unattainable. The report draws on UN predictions of the effects of climate change in poor countries over the next 50 years, which indicate that these countries will experience more flooding, declining food production, more disease and the deterioration or extinction of entire ecosystems. According to the coalition -- comprised of 17 members, including ActionAid, Christian Aid, Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, Oxfam and WWF -- the link between climate change and the widespread prevalence of poverty can no longer be ignored. Andrew Simms, co-author of the report and director of the New Economics Foundation in the UK, comments that, "to rescue the situation we need a global framework to stop climate change that is based on equality, and we have to ensure that plans for human development are made both climate-proof and climate-friendly". The report calls on the international community to introduce a global risk assessment of the likely costs of adaptation to climate change in poor countries. Policies should decrease, as opposed to increase, vulnerability to the effects of climate change. The report also calls for cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases by industrialised countries. Beyond policy formulation, the report emphasises the value of education, research and agricultural assistance in poor countries.

"Putin clears way for Kyoto pact," CNN, 5 November 2004; "Russia's upper house backs Kyoto," BBC, 27 October 2004; "Russia ratifies Kyoto protocol," ITAR-TASS, 27 October 2004; "Russian Parliament's Kyoto Ratification Underlines Bush Isolation," ONEWORLDUS, 25 October 2004; "IEA Director Releases Latest World Energy Outlook, Says Current Energy Trends Call for Urgent and Decisive Policy Responses", IEA RELEASE, 26 October 2004; "Fuel goods imports up - WTO," AFP, 25 October 2004; "Aid Agencies' Warning On Climate," BBC NEWS, 20 October 2004; "Coalition Warns About Human Cost Of Climate Change," CHANNEL NEWS ASIA INTERNATIONAL, 20 October 2004; "Global Warming A Bigger Threat To Poor," GUARDIAN, 20 October 2004.