FLURRY OF ACTIVITY ON CLIMATE CHANGE PRECEDES LOW-EXPECTATION COP

With a major UN climate meeting around the corner, two new reports detail the global costs of inaction on climate change as well as the threat climate change poses to Africa specifically. UK Prime Minister Tony Blair responded by calling for immediate action, and was backed by his finance minister who proposed new emissions reduction targets for the EU.

Yet, expectations for the twelfth meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP-12) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the second meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP-2) in Nairobi, Kenya from 6-17 November are low. Issues on the agenda include both discussions on commitments under the Kyoto Protocol after the first commitment period that expires in 2012, and dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change under the UNFCCC. Future action is a contentious topic, especially given that countries, such as the US and Australia, have rejected the Kyoto Protocol and are reluctant to agree to take on commitments. Major developing countries that have signed on to Kyoto are under pressure to take on some form of commitments in the future, but hesitate to bind themselves to anything as long as developed countries fail to show effective leadership. In fact, recent figures from the UNFCCC secretariat show that emissions from developed countries are on the rise.

COP-12 participants will also seek to set the rules for a fund for projects that help developing countries adapt to climate change, and to set in motion policy discussions on the topic.

Stern Review: Failure to act not an option

In a 700-page report on the effects of climate change delivered to the British government, Sir Nicholas Stern, former chief economist at the World Bank, warns that the world must take action now in order to avoid facing huge costs in the future. In fact, up to 20 percent of global GDP might be lost due to the effects of climate change by 2050 if nothing is done, the report notes. On the other hand, investing one percent of global GDP into measures to mitigate climate change would be enough to set the globe on a sustainable path. Nicholas Stern called for international action, with developed countries taking the lead, noting that "Whilst there is much more we need to understand - both in science and economics - we know enough now to be clear about the magnitude of the risks, the timescale for action and how to act effectively."

Responding to the Stern Review, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said "We know now urgent action will prevent catastrophe, and investment in preventing it now will pay us back many times." He called on the EU to take on a leadership role, while also recognising the need for significant players -- including the US and major developing countries like China and India -- to get involved.

Prospects for Africa 'up in smoke'

"Up in Smoke 2", a report released on the eve of the climate meetings by the Working Group on Climate Change and Development -- an umbrella group of UK aid and green groups -- spells out how climate change already is affecting Africa, as well as future scenarios. According to the report, both droughts and floods have increased, seriously threatening food security. While greenhouse gas emissions from the continent are trivial, it is set to bear much of the burden of a changing climate.

The report calls for a climate-proofed development model for Africa, and says that developed countries should contribute US$10-40 billion in order to help developing countries adapt to climate change. The adaptation fund is one of the issues on the table at the climate meeting in Nairobi. Developed countries have provided US$43 million in funding for adaptation, which constitutes a tenth of the amount they have pledged. In addition, while the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, which allows developed countries to offset emissions reductions by projects that do so in developing countries, has gotten off to a positive start, only a small subset of these investments are trickling into Africa.

Greenhouse gas emissions on the rise

The climate negotiations in Nairobi will take place against the backdrop of countries' rising greenhouse gas emissions. On 30 October the UNFCCC released figures for all developed country parties from 1990-2004. "There is a rather worrying increase in the period 2000-04," noted UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer. During that period, emissions rose in transition economies, following a downward trend in the 1990s due to economic slowdown after the collapse of the Soviet Union. US emissions were 15.8 percent higher in 2004 than in 1990; EU emissions were 0.6 percent below 1990 levels. The EU has, however, committed to cutting them by eight percent by 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol.

On the positive side, economic output has become almost 30 percent less carbon intensive since 1990, meaning 30 percent less carbon is released for every dollar worth of production.

Kyoto - and what next?

Key discussions at Nairobi will relate to the future commitments to deal with climate change -- although chances that parties will agree to a schedule or deadline for the process at this time are slim. At COP-11 last year, parties agreed to a "Montreal Action Plan" to discuss what happens after the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012, without setting specific dates for when this discussion should be completed.

Several environmental groups have suggested that negotiations should be completed "by the end of 2008 to ensure a seamless shift when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012." Negotiators setting off for the meeting have questioned whether this is realistic, however. Some hope that the time after US President Bush -- a staunch opponent of the Kyoto Protocol -- steps down in January 2009 might be more conducive to agreement.

The private sector is looking anxiously for some indications of what comes after the first commitment period. Without a stable framework in place, investments in carbon reduction become risky.

In terms of emissions cuts, British Finance Minister Gordon Brown has made a concrete proposal for the EU to reduce emissions by 30 percent by 2020 -- echoing a call by German Chancellor Angela Merkel -- and 60 percent by 2050, while also expanding its carbon trading scheme. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed emissions reductions of 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 in California. These suggestions are unlikely to make it to the international negotiating table in Nairobi, however.

Additional resources

For further information on the climate meeting see http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_12/items/3754.php

For daily updates on the climate meetings, see IISD Linkages at http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop12/

To access the Stern Review, visit http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/Independent_Reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm

To access "Africa - Up In Smoke 2," produced by Oxfam and the New Economics Foundation, visit http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/z_sys_PublicationDetail.aspx?pid=232

"Climate change fight 'can't wait'," BBC, 31 October 2006; "Publication of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate change," UK TREASURY RELEASE, 30 October 2006; "Time to Get Serious on 'Bold' Kyoto Successor - WWF," REUTERS, 24 October 2006; "Climate change 'hitting Africa,'" BBC, 28 October 2006; "Britain Calls for Urgent Action on Climate Change," REUTERS, 31 October 2006; "Greenhouse Gases Rise in 2004, Cuts Needed - UN," REUTERS, 31 October 2006; "2006 UNFCCC greenhouse gas data report points to rising emission trends," UNFCCC RELEASE, 30 October 2006.