NAIROBI CLIMATE MEETING FOCUSES ON FUTURE CLIMATE ACTION

Amid rising greenhouse gas emissions and a heightened focus on the economic costs of global warming, a two-week long UN climate change conference in Nairobi left both government delegates and civil society representatives with the feeling that they had accomplished little.

The UN Climate Change Conference - Nairobi 2006, encompassing the twelfth meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP-12) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the second meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP-2), was held from 6-17 November.

Given the location of the conference -- it was the first such climate conference to be held in sub-Saharan Africa -- the impacts of climate change, which are projected to hit poorer countries most harshly, were already apparent to participants. Much of the focus of the meeting was on adaptation and on the difficulties African countries are already facing as a result of climate change. Outgoing UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan put his weight behind calls for concrete action by announcing a new UN multi-agency Nairobi Framework to secure additional funding for clean energy in African countries.

Multi-track approach for the post-Kyoto regime

Future action to combat climate change, especially after the Kyoto Protocol's emissions reduction requirements expire in 2012, was extensively discussed at the meeting.

These discussions took place on several tracks, the broadest being a "Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention". The second workshop of this ongoing dialogue consisted of presentations and discussions on market-based opportunities, adaptation and the effective use of technology. All parties to the UNFCCC participate in the dialogue, including countries that have rejected the Kyoto Protocol, such as the US and Australia.

A working group charged with negotiating new post-2012 commitments for Annex I countries -- the developed countries that have committed to binding emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol -- also continued talks in Nairobi. Participants agreed to a plan of work, but did not set dates for how to wrap up these talks as demanded by the developing countries. Instead, they simply underscored the need for an "energetic and timely pursuit" of the work programme.

Among other things, parties could not agree on a suggestion by the EU and Norway to set an 'aspirational' long-term goal for the Kyoto Protocol as a whole, such as target ceilings for temperature increase or greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Certain Annex I countries insisted that future targets needed to reflect the range of options available to parties in order to ensure that they were achievable. Furthermore, they argued that in order to be effective, a future regime would require a broad commitment to emissions reduction from all parties -- developed and developing countries alike.

Future work in this group is set to focus on three aspects: analysis of mitigation potential and ranges of emission reduction objectives; analysis of possible means to achieve mitigation objectives; and consideration of further commitments.

In particular, the future work on mitigation could have crucial implications for how action under the climate regime could relate to initiatives in other policy fora that relate directly or indirectly to global production and competitiveness.

Also on the agenda was a review of the Protocol as mandated by Article 9 This issue was contentious because the review provides a signal for future action. The review could conceivably lead to the conclusion that in order for the Kyoto Protocol to be effective, all countries need to make emissions reduction commitments -- something emerging developing countries are resisting to do, especially until they see developed countries show leadership in terms of their own action. In the end, countries agreed to hold a second review in 2008, which they stressed "shall not lead to new commitments for any party".

Meanwhile, both environmental groups and the private sector are looking for speedier action. Industry groups including the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) called upon governments to quickly agree on a policy framework for the post- 2012 period, preferably by 2008, in order to give them longer-term certainty for investment decisions. Both carbon markets and projects to reduce emissions stand to expand with a clear framework for the years beyond 2012.

Additional resources

Meeting documents are available at http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_12/items/3754.php.

Daily reporting was provided by IISD Linkages, http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop12/.

ICTSD reporting; EARTH NEGOTIATIONS BULLETIN Vol. 12 No. 318, 20 November 2006; "Climate conference settles on next steps to negotiate future emissions cuts," ASSOCIATED PRESS, 17 November 2006; "Nairobi climate talks end in deal," BBC NEWS, 17 November 2006; "Little progress at climate summit," THE GUARDIAN, 18 November 2006.