Agriculture Negotiations at the WTO: ‘Framework Phase’ Outlook Report
This report, issued in March 2004, seeks to summarise the recent developments since issuing the last report in October 2003 to the end of February 2004. As WTO Members were unable to adopt a modalities ‘framework’ at Cancun, this report attempts to provide an update on how WTO Members could be expected to facilitate a process that could maintain a certain degree of momentum in the stalled agriculture negotiations.
New signs of movement in agriculture negotiations - a key element of the Doha round - are cropping up after a period of scant progress following the collapse of trade talks in Cancun in September 2003. As expected by most participants and observers of the WTO agriculture negotiations, Members were unable to agree on a framework for agricultural modalities by the scheduled 15 December 2003 General Council (GC) meetingi. However, it was agreed that the special session of the WTO Committee on Agriculture (CoA) would be re-launched in early- 2004. The CoA’s newly nominated Chair, New Zealand’s Timothy Groser, took immediate action as he has recently scheduled new WTO agriculture negotiations for 22-26 March in Geneva.
Following a number of high-level meetings between individual trade ministers and among groups of ministers over the past weeks, there are new signs that agriculture talks may be picking up speed. Key actors such as the US, the EC and the G-20 group of developing countries have signalled a renewed commitment to the round and willingness to compromise. Recent remarks from both the EC and the US suggest that the task of reaching an agreement on at least a framework for agriculture modalities could be accomplished by August. Geneva observers have, however, cautioned against too much enthusiasm at this point, waiting to see concrete results at the next Committee on Agriculture (CoA) special (negotiating) session. Due to increased pressure of the US, G-20 and the Cairns Group on the EC to agree on phasing out export subsidies, the issue of negotiating an end date for all forms of export subsidies appears now to be the most pressing theme in the post-Cancun negotiations. In a next step, the EC and the US would need to come to an agreement on how to substantially reduce trade distorting domestic support in a way mutually acceptable to them as well as for all Members. Lastly, the most contentious task will be to find an agreement on the market access pillar, where compromise is needed from virtually all Members, and which involves various “hot” issues - mostly related to special and differential treatment (S&D) for developing countries.
This report is divided into four sections: Section 1 contains a brief introduction setting the agriculture negotiations in the overall context of the Doha round negotiations, and a summary of key events relevant to the WTO agriculture negotiations. Section 2 makes an attempt to disaggregate and briefly analyse recent moves, statements and proposals of key actors in the negotiations such as the US, the EC, the G-20 and the newly reinvigorated Cairns Group. Section 3 summarises and briefly comments on the developments in the negotiations on cotton subsidies since the Cancun Ministerial Conference. Section 4 looks ahead at the upcoming issues in connection with the post-Cancun negotiations on an agriculture framework agreement. The methodology used in compiling this report combined comprehensive in-house analytical work, as well as extensive outreach to country delegates based in Geneva and representatives of local non-governmental organisations.