HOPE DISAPPEARING FOR JULY DEAL

Days of intensive informal consultations held by the Chairs of the WTO negotiating groups on agriculture, development, and non-agricultural market access (NAMA) in an effort to reach at least some common ground among Members before an end-July target date for progress in the Doha Round negotiations appear to have largely failed (see related stories, this issue). Many delegations seem to have given up hope that anything significant will emerge from the July General Council (GC) meetings, and are turning their attention instead on December's Ministerial Conference in Hong Kong.

NAMA Chair Ambassador Stefan Johannesson of Iceland explicitly told a 26 July meeting of the Negotiating Group on Market Access that he was not in a position to come up with detailed "first approximations" of an eventual NAMA deal, and that his paper on the talks would effectively be a 'progress report.' Speaking to an informal Heads of Delegation (HoD) meeting on agriculture the same day, agriculture Chair Tim Groser was not as specific about the content of his paper, but was not optimistic (see related story, same issue). His assertion that it would reflect all of the different positions expressed by Members led some observers to conclude that his report would be little more than a summary of what has been said in the negotiations thus far.

The 27 July meeting of the GC was suspended. It will resume on 29 July. A meeting of the Trade Negotiations Committee (TNC) is scheduled for the morning of 28 July, followed by an informal HoD meeting in the evening. Sources suggest that the 29 July meeting will probably be a simple stocktaking exercise.

Members had originally hoped to have by now a fairly detailed outline of an eventual agreement to be adopted at Hong Kong. A heavy push in the negotiations at the same time in 2004 yielded the 'July Package' deal (WT/L/579) that revived the Doha Round talks from the malaise that followed the collapse of the Cancun Ministerial Conference in September 2003.

Supachai presses 'alarm button'; hopes for July deal almost dead

Outgoing WTO Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi's told a 21 July TNC meeting that he was pressing the "alarm button" with regard to progress in the faltering talks. He said that the "crisis of immobility" that he had identified some weeks before had only deepened (see BRIDGES Weekly, 13 July 2005). Nevertheless, he insisted that it would not be impossible for Members to find common ground on some of the "areas of divergence" in time for the GC meeting at the end of July.

However, Members' subsequent failure to break the deadlock on the farm trade talks makes the possibility of convergence increasingly remote. Many trade negotiators have said that in the absence of progress on agriculture, several delegations would not make concessions in other negotiating areas, particularly NAMA.

Looking ahead to the fall

Representatives of some delegations are starting to cast their eyes towards September, when the WTO will resume work after its customary August holiday. They now suggest that expectations for the end of July may have been unrealistically high, and that Members will have enough time in the fall to bridge the significant gaps that continue to separate them.

An agreement on agriculture may yet "unlock" the negotiations in the fall (see BRIDGES Weekly, 20 July 2005). During his assessment of the talks on 26 July, NAMA Chair Johannesson said that in spite of the "impasse" on the tariff reduction formula, Members' positions were not impossibly far apart, and that a deal on agriculture could pave the way for significant movement on NAMA.

Ministers coming to Geneva

Trade ministers from a number of influential WTO Member governments are arriving in Geneva to try to give a boost to the talks. EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson and Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath are slated to arrive on 28 July. Two Japanese ministers are said to have already arrived in Geneva. US Trade Representative Rob Portman will reportedly stop in Geneva in the next few days to assess the negotiations. At least some ministers are expected to attend the 28 July HoD meeting.

The ministerial presence might turn out to be too little, too late. In 2004, discussions at the end of July carried on through the weekend, culminating in agreement only on 2 August. This year, however, GC Chair Ambassador Amina Mohamed of Kenya insists that discussions will conclude on 29 July, the day of the GC meeting, and that any meetings that take place after midnight that day will be considered to be separate from WTO processes. Furthermore, trade sources say that it is not clear if the ministers coming to Geneva -- especially those from the EU and the US -- would be bringing key concessions to the negotiating table, or if their presence is largely intended to be symbolic.

As late as 26 July, NAMA Chair Johannesson had been holding out hope for an agreement in the next few days, saying that "July is not over." In contrast, senior Brazilian trade negotiator Clodoaldo Hugueney, was quoted by the Indian daily Financial Express as saying "I think that it is over. Everything has finished for this week."

International consumer advocacy organisation Consumers International has called on WTO Members to "stop basking in the Geneva sunshine and take action that has a positive impact on the lives of all consumers." The group's demands include universal service obligations for private sector water and electricity companies, the removal of all export subsidies on food products by 2010, and the adoption of disciplines that would "enable developing countries to manufacture or import life-saving drugs at affordable prices."

ICTSD will report on the rest of the week's talks in the next issue of BRIDGES Weekly.

ICTSD reporting; "Ministers to Try to Rejuvenate Trade Deal," ASSOCIATED PRESS, 27 July 2005; " No breakthroughs at WTO," FINANCIAL EXPRESS, 27 July 2005; "Doha's crunch week in danger of becoming a damp squib," FINANCIAL TIMES, 26 July 2005; "EU disappointed at WTO failure, vows to persist," FINANCIAL EXPRESS, 28 July 2005; "WTO must stop chatting and start taking action declares world consumer body," CONSUMERS INTERNATIONAL PRESS RELEASE, 26 July 2005.