WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy told Members on 10 October that they have not yet come forward with the significantly altered negotiating positions necessary to restart the stalled Doha Round trade talks. He said that they would have to do so "between November and springtime" in order to be able to strike an agreement in 2007.

In a speech to the General Council, Lamy said that since the trade talks were suspended in July, he had met with ministers and senior trade officials from around the world "in order to facilitate resumption of the negotiations," and could report that "the desire to come back to the negotiating table and to make a deal is widespread and genuine."

However, he emphasised, despite the expressions of support for the talks from virtually every quarter, "we can only resume when substantive positions have changed on key problem issues, in particular in the key area of agriculture, which holds the key to unlocking the rest of the agenda." There had been "no visible indications of flexibilities" thus far, added Lamy. "Unless and until it happens, we will remain deadlocked."

The WTO chief identified two other "parameters" of the path back to the bargaining table. One was that the "window of opportunity" in which to act was limited. "If we are to have a chance of finishing in 2007," he said, "the space to move is somewhere between November and springtime, which appears to be the latest time to get the breakthrough we need." Furthermore, negotiations can only be resumed "across the board," i.e., in every area of discussion.

Spring 2007 would be shortly before the end-June expiry of the US presidential administration's mandate to negotiate trade agreements and submit them to Congress for a take-it-or-leave-it vote without the possibility of major amendments. Although it is already too late for Members to fully finalise a Doha Round accord by then, Congress might agree to a short-term extension of the Bush administration's 'trade promotion authority' if a deal looks to be coming together in early 2007.

Lamy stressed the costs of failing to resolve the impasse, both to the global economy and the multilateral trading system. He said that developing countries would be most hurt by a failure to conclude the round, suggesting that this is why they have been "the loudest in clamouring for a resumption of the negotiations."

Countries call for resumption of talks

Many countries and blocs called for the rapid resumption of talks. Speaking for the African Group, Benin said that it did not want to risk losing what had already been accomplished in the negotiations. Australia stressed the Cairns Group farm exporters' commitment to getting back to the bargaining table as soon as possible, as did Brazil on behalf of the G-20.

Bangladesh, representing the Least-developed Country (LDC) Group, asked the "countries concerned" to bridge their differences, since a successful conclusion to the round would help the poorest countries see benefits from economic globalisation.

A handful of Members made more pointed remarks. On behalf of the G-33 group of developing countries, Indonesia criticised what it described as attempts to undermine already-agreed flexibilities for developing countries in the agriculture negotiations -- specifically, the ability to use a 'special safeguard mechanism' (SSM) to protect farmers from the effects of import surges, and to designate 'special products' (SPs) for lower tariff cuts on the basis of food security and livelihood concerns. It complained that some countries were too focused on the export interests of agri-business, blinding them to the needs of vulnerable farmers in poor countries. Although Indonesia did not name any countries, the US has been particularly critical of the G-33's demands for such flexibilities, describing them as a 'black box' that render it impossible to determine the true value of any market access offer.

Cuba openly blamed the impasse in the talks on the US, saying that Washington had simply not been willing to take the steps necessary for a compromise.

Lamy urges informal discussions

Lamy called on Members to work to make the resumption of negotiations possible, since "resuming makes no sense if nothing has changed since July." "This is no time for inaction but rather for discreet and quiet activity," he said, adding that he would work with Members to facilitate movement and had encouraged the negotiating group chairs to do the same. "I urge all of you to continue technical work, discreet calculations, private sounding to prepare the ground. I do not believe anything else is acceptable to the global community."

Sources report that Singaporean Ambassador Burhan Gafoor cautioned that the credibility of the multilateral trading system would be jeopardised if the negotiations did not resume soon. A time-out was fine, he said, but an indefinite suspension would take the pressure off governments. He suggested that the chairs of the negotiating groups could start holding informal meetings. Formal gatherings are impossible because the talks are suspended.

The Philippines said that Members should start thinking about a backup plan in case the negotiations are not concluded in 2007, according to reports from trade officials. It said that if the talks finished in 2008 or 2009 -- if at all -- it would be necessary to ensure that developmental considerations are not left by the wayside in the push for an agreement.

The next General Council session is scheduled for 14-15 December. A special meeting may be convened earlier to vote on Vietnam's accession to the WTO.

ICTSD reporting.