Farm trade negotiators in Geneva have held a series of informal meetings to explore the possibilities for restarting the suspended Doha Round talks. Many delegates appear to believe that the negotiations are stirring after a gap of nearly four months, and that preliminary moves must be made in the coming weeks if progress is to be achieved in early 2007, in time for the constraints imposed by the US' political timetable.

Ambassador Crawford Falconer (New Zealand) on 10 November convened an informal meeting, open to all delegations, to discuss the Doha Round agriculture talks. Although Falconer is the chair of these negotiations, he stressed that the invitation was in his personal capacity. This was the first gathering of agriculture negotiators from all WTO Members since the round was 'suspended' in July due to differences on farm subsidy and tariff cuts.

No decision has yet been taken to restart the talks. However, at a 'green room' meeting with WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy, also on 10 November, a number of ambassadors are believed to have expressed the view that the 'period of reflection' initiated by the suspension of talks had not delivered any concrete results. They suggested that it might be best to quietly resume work in the various negotiating groups (see related story, this issue). An informal meeting of WTO heads of delegation -- the first since July -- has been scheduled for 16 November to discuss the overall state of the Doha Round negotiations.

Falconer: progress impossible if Members not talking

Delegates report that at the meeting he convened, Falconer said that he felt uncomfortable that no process existed for Members to talk to each other if they wished to do so. He emphasised that progress was impossible if Members were not talking, even though the simple fact of meeting was also no guarantee of breakthroughs.

Falconer's meeting was supposed to be a 'transparency forum' for Members to discuss their activities since the suspension of the talks. While some Members have been meeting informally, smaller delegations may not necessarily have been kept abreast of developments. The coordinators of different groups in the agriculture negotiations -- including Brazil for the G-20, Indonesia for the G-33, and Switzerland for the G-10 -- described their respective blocs' recent discussions. However, they did not say anything new, according to a number of trade delegates.

Trade sources indicate that negotiators congratulated Falconer for taking the initiative to hold the informal meeting. However, they added that if future meetings were to be held on agriculture, similar ones should also be convened on other parts of the negotiating agenda. Falconer reportedly emphasised that other areas were beyond his mandate, and that delegates could contact the relevant chairs if they wanted such meetings.

The day before his 'transparency forum,' Falconer had convened a 'fireside chat' with a select group of ambassadors. He reported on this discussion to the larger meeting. Trade sources familiar with the meeting indicated that the focus was similar to the meeting on the 10 November -- rather than specific negotiating issues, discussions centred more on potential processes for how the negotiations might be restarted, and the possible value of holding informal meetings of the full membership.

Members have also been discussing the extent to which the negotiations could be considered to be restarting "with a capital 'R'" or not, in a reference to the degree of formality and structure of future talks.

Schwab reiterates conditions for breaking deadlock

The US midterm Congressional elections had been looming over the negotiations. Some delegates suggested that it was no accident that Falconer's meeting had been held after the 7 November election day. However, US Trade Representative Susan Schwab argued in a 9 November article in the Wall Street Journal that the outcome of the elections would not change Washington's stance in the negotiations. Broadly restating the US' standard position, she wrote that "to break the current deadlock, we need commitments that take us beyond current positions in four key areas." These are: "substantial improvements" by the EU, Japan and other G-10 countries in agricultural tariff cuts, especially for 'sensitive products' that would be exempted from the full tariff cuts; deeper cuts in agricultural tariffs by 'major developing countries', including for sheltered 'special products'; deeper EU and US reductions in trade-distorting support; and cuts in industrial tariffs by developed and major developing countries.

Several Geneva-based negotiators believe that the dominant issue now is the expiry of the US president's trade promotion authority in July 2007. This allows him to negotiate deals and submit them for a yes-or-no vote by Congress, without the possibility of amendment. The delegates say that a very narrow 'window of opportunity' exists for the talks to restart and make progress, beginning in January 2007 and ending around March or April. At the end of this short period, negotiators would have to have made sufficient progress to convince Congress that it would be worthwhile for them to extend the president's trade promotion authority. Given the limited time available next year, initial groundwork for the negotiations would have to take place now, trade sources claimed.

Although no attempts had been made to address the specific issues that have proved so intractable in the negotiations, the agriculture chair has taken the necessary initial steps to ensure that talks can begin more easily once the political will to do so has been established. "Crawford has turned on the engine to warm up the car a bit, but it's not yet in gear," said one delegate.

Delegates reported that Falconer has now invited all Members to attend another such informal meeting on 20 November.

ICTSD reporting.